AI Set to Transform Global Trade by 2040-WTO

Artificial intelligence may reshape global trade within two decades, but only if access gaps are closed. That is the message from the World Trade Organization (WTO) in its 2025 World Trade Report, which forecasts that cross-border trade could jump by nearly 40% by 2040 if AI is widely adopted.

The report explains that AI adoption could slash trade costs, lift productivity, and expand GDP by up to 13% worldwide. However, it warns that gains will not be evenly shared. Wealthy countries already enjoy better digital infrastructure and easier access to semiconductors and raw materials, while poorer nations risk being left behind.

Unequal Access Threatens the Promise

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala stressed the importance of inclusive adoption. “AI has vast potential to lower trade costs and boost productivity. However, access to AI technologies and the capacity to participate in digital trade remains highly uneven,” she said.

The WTO estimates that if developing countries close half of their digital gap with advanced economies, incomes could rise by 15% in low-income nations and 14% in middle-income ones. Without such progress, experts fear inequality between economies will deepen.

Trade barriers are also slowing progress. Restrictions on AI-related goods jumped from 130 in 2012 to almost 500 in 2024, mostly imposed by richer economies. In some poorer countries, tariffs on AI-enabling products remain as high as 45%, blocking access and limiting competitiveness.

What the World Needs To Do

The report calls for greater investment in education, training, and labour market policies to prepare workers for AI-driven industries. It also urges governments to adopt predictable trade policies and expand commitments under existing agreements such as the WTO Information Technology Agreement and the General Agreement on Trade in Services.

AI-related goods already account for $2.3 trillion of global trade, underscoring the size of the market. By reducing costs and improving efficiency, the WTO argues, AI could unlock significant opportunities — if policies are designed to make those benefits accessible to all.

The organisation has already recorded over 80 trade concerns linked to AI and continues to provide a platform for members through its Work Programme on E-Commerce. Whether governments can align policies fast enough remains the key question for the next 15 years.